A journal of
patient capital.
Research, market notes, and field observations from Olive Branch Capital — an Ontario-based private investment firm building long-term value across real estate, public markets, and small business.
The Current Issue
This week in the branch.
The Dossier
Latest issues.
Valuation Discipline in Uncertain Markets
Why disciplined valuation matters most when market narratives become unstable.
Investing With Discipline When Market Conditions Change
Changing market conditions reward investors who separate price movement from business fundamentals.
The Role of Diversification in Long-Term Capital Preservation
Diversification is not about owning more assets; it is about reducing dependence on a single outcome.
Understanding Value Investing in Today's Market
How disciplined analysis and patience continue to outperform short-term speculation in volatile markets.
Why Portfolio Resilience Starts Before Volatility Arrives
A resilient portfolio is designed before markets become unstable, not after volatility has already arrived.
Field Notes
Research from the ground.
Longer-form theses, market deep-dives, and primary research from projects we're working on.
The framework
Every thesis walks
through seven gates.
The writing above is the public surface. Underneath every issue is the same disciplined sequence of checks we use before a single dollar is deployed — the Conviction Engine.
No position earns capital until all seven gates clear. No exceptions, no overrides, no “this one is different.”
- 01
Thesis Clarity
Can the opportunity be explained in one sentence?
- 02
Valuation Edge
Is the market price meaningfully below intrinsic value?
- 03
Margin of Safety
What is the downside if the thesis is wrong?
- 04
Cash Flow Quality
Are the underlying cash flows durable and predictable?
- 05
Moat & Management
Is there a defensible advantage and aligned leadership?
- 06
Catalyst & Timing
What unlocks the value, and when?
- 07
Conviction Score
Does it earn a position size — or is it watch-list only?
Get the next Brief.
Weekly notes on markets we're watching, deals we're building, and the lessons behind both. No noise, no spam.